- The Supreme Court will find DOMA's federal definition of marriage as an inherently gendered institution unconstitutional, although the rational they will choose is up for debate. Either it will be violating the equal protection clause (by making same-sex marriages "skim milk" while opposite sex marriages receive full federal benefits), or it will be found to be infringing severely on state's rights to regulate marriage as they see fit. Regardless, DOMA will be thrown out, and legal same-sex marriages at the state level will also be recognized at the federal level.
- The Supreme Court will decide that BLAG had no right to defend the case, and that the refusal of the Obama Administration and the Attorney General to defend the case because they themselves find it unconstitutional (all the while enforcing DOMA as per the responsibilities of the Executive Branch and the Justice Dept. to uphold the laws of the land) raises serious constitutional questions in and of itself. Of course, should they decide this, another similar case will arise within a few years time. That Administration may choose to defend DOMA, but as the arguments of the merits of the case would be roughly the same, it seems silly to retry it when a decision can be made now (a choice that would save the federal government money in the long run).
Those are the choices, folks. Today's discussion made it pretty clear that this Supreme Court is unlikely to uphold DOMA. What is worrisome is that they may elect not to rule on the case because they feel BLAG has no special interest in the case, nor have they the potential to incur any harm, unlike the Administration would, had they not sided with the plaintiff. If this happens, no judicial progress can be made on this issue for another 4 years. Legislative options are all that is left. And I'm not sure the House and Senate have enough support on the left to pass any laws invalidating DOMA.

